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Mikkel Thorup : June 25 2024
We are witnessing a significant transformation in the political scene, characterized by the rise of hard-right parties across Europe over the last two decades. In this context, I am using the term "hard-right" to describe political groups that have set themselves apart from the center-right by strongly advocating for a stringent closure of Europe's borders to immigrants, opposing further enlargement and integration of the EU, and promoting increased sovereign power for individual national states within the EU. Historically, right-wing groups have struggled to gain a significant foothold within the political framework of the European Union. However, recent elections, particularly the 2024 European Election, show a dramatic shift in this trend.
In the 2024 elections, French President Macron's centrist Renaissance Party won 15% of the vote, while Le Pen's hard-right National Rally Party finished first with 32%. The Socialists received only 14%. As a result, Macron unexpectedly dissolved the French Parliament and called for snap elections on June 30 and July 7.
A National Rally victory could significantly impact the 2027 presidential elections, potentially reshaping EU politics. The rise of right-wing parties has become the hottest political debate in Europe.
Why should you care about these political conflicts? Whether you live in Europe or elsewhere, the conventional international order is starting to crack, and national political and economic stability is becoming increasingly uncertain. Relying on any political leader's propaganda will likely lead to disappointment.
Neither hard-right, hard-left, nor any middle-of-the-road politicians can secure your future. It is up to you and your family to make the right choice. Without a Plan-B, you risk your freedom and wealth. I can help you to develop a Plan-B, but first, let's explore why the EU's promises of freedom and prosperity have largely failed in recent years.
The Treaty of Rome, signed on March 25, 1957, established the European Economic Community (EEC)
The stated goal of establishing the EU was to build a European common market and prevent economic rivalry between European countries from sparking new wars. The European Economic Community (EEC), founded in 1957, succeeded to some extent in expanding member states and facilitating the free movement of goods and people.
Following the economic liberalization led by Reagan and Thatcher in the 1980s and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Eastern bloc countries began to leave the Soviet Union. Initially a free trade association, EEC was caught up in the delusion of becoming a superpower and transformed into the European Union in 1992.
The EU is a supranational organization where member states pool their sovereignty in specific areas to enable collective decision-making and policies, having established European citizenship, a common currency (the Euro), and a common foreign policy. Its entities, including the European Parliament and the European Commission, have created one of the largest bureaucracies in history. This bureaucracy, abandoning free trade ideals, became a hub for progressive ideologies, imposing inefficient economic regulations that harmed competition within the EU.
The delusion of a common European identity based on progressive ideologies led to politically correct propaganda. These claims so captivated the EU leaders that in 2005, they put the 448-article Constitution of the European Union to a vote. Common sense prevailed, and the constitutional fantasy was rejected by the people. Despite this, new leftist groups, with their environmentalist and social justice policies, turned the EU into an instrument of politically correct politics, influencing everything from food and drink to thought and expression.
Meanwhile, Europe never regained its pre-World War II leadership in science, art, technology, and economics. Unable to compete with North America in science and technology and with China in industry, the EU saw the real welfare of its middle- and lower-income groups decline while political elites continued to impose their new-left agenda through the EU bureaucracy.
While EU political elites hallucinated about social justice and environmentalism, external shocks destabilized EU countries. The 2008 crisis led to economic contraction and soaring unemployment. Spain, Portugal, and Greece quickly lost fiscal discipline, resulting in prolonged economic crises. The main solutions offered by EU elites were more regulations and increased money circulation - in fact, we know that measures like these only make things worse and lead to financial disasters in the long term.
As the economic crisis shook the EU, millions of immigrants fleeing Middle Eastern wars flooded into Europe starting in 2015. Europe, already struggling economically, was unprepared for the political crisis fueled by identity politics. I wonder what would be left of the EU today if Turkey hadn't kept millions of Middle Eastern immigrants at its borders.
In 2020, European elites bypassed legal principles and frantically curtailed individual freedoms with escalating global restrictions and prohibitions. Amid economic and immigrant crises, Europeans helplessly watched their individual liberties being usurped by politicians.
Europe's energy insecurity was exposed when Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. As Russia cut off natural gas supplies, some factories couldn't function. Politicians advised citizens to dress warmly in winter, revealing their lack of alternative energy plans and imposing astronomical fuel and energy increases. Environmentalist Europe even restarted coal use and promoted nuclear energy as a clean alternative.
Today, the EU faces political failure with an aging population, lost industrial leadership, economic stagnation, an identity crisis, and bureaucratic constraints. Political elites are caught off guard by the rise of hard-right parties. To see where the EU is headed, we should take a closer look at the political prospects of these hard-right parties.
The EU's defence spending under NATO's protection is insufficient to ensure security. How could hard-right leaders (even if reluctant) provide financial assistance to Ukraine while defending their own countries against the perceived Russian threat?
Since its inception, centrist and progressive views have heavily influenced EU policies, shaped significantly by the horrors of fascism and Nazism in World War II. However, a nationalist and hard-right wave has recently emerged, starting on the EU's periphery and moving inward, demonstrated by the political success of several hard-right parties.
In Hungary, Viktor Orbán has been in power since 2010. Poland's Law and Justice Party (PiS) has dominated since 2015. In 2022, Giorgia Meloni became Prime Minister of Italy, marking a significant shift in traditional center-party policies, given her roots in Italian neo-fascist groups.
The National Rally became the third-largest party in France in 2022, winning 89 seats. Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ) garnered 16% of the vote in 2019 and is projected to surpass 20% in 2024. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which the government suspects of Nazi sympathies, received 10.3% of the vote in the federal elections. Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) won 37 of the 150 seats in the 2023 Dutch elections, becoming the third-largest party and a significant force in opposition.
The primary goal of the hard-right parties is to prevent deeper EU integration and the expansion of EU borders. In this respect, they demand more independence from national governments in foreign and economic policy.
It is unclear how this phenomenon, known as Euroscepticism, will take shape. The EU's defence spending under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) protection is insufficient to protect the Union. As the energy crisis has shown, it is doubtful that political elites have a plan in many strategic areas. It is also unclear how hard-right leaders, on the one hand, reluctant to provide financial assistance to Ukraine, will defend their own countries against the perceived Russian threat.
Another important characteristic of hard-right parties is their anti-immigrant stance. During economic growth, European countries such as Germany and France opened their doors to workers from Eastern Europe, Turkey, Africa and the Middle East. The fact that they now believe that the economic crisis can be solved by simply closing these doors is a testament to Europe's economic shortsightedness.
For example, the discontent against Syrian immigrants in Italy today is likely to turn against Polish or Hungarians tomorrow. A similar scenario played out in the UK when it left the EU in 2020 (despite the Brexit vote taking place in 2016), but simply leaving the EU did not help the UK's impoverished population to prosper.
Similarly, hard-right supporters argue that immigrants place a strain on the welfare state. Still, they do not know how to tackle the welfare state in the face of an aging population and economic inefficiency.
Another issue that continues the immigration debate is the hard-right emphasis on the preservation of cultural identity. The hazy political atmosphere created by immigrants and political correctness leads many voters to feel that the world they are familiar with is slipping away. The first remedy they seek for these political anxieties is nationalism. The rise of nationalism centred around national identity is, therefore, not surprising. However, it is unclear how nationalism can solve the real problems of a weakening EU.
Countries that offer citizenship or residency through investment have favourable tax regimes, including low or no taxes on foreign income, capital gains, and inheritances
Of course, pushing climate change agendas, green energy dreams, or cultural integration in the EU Parliament will no longer be as easy as before. France may follow the example of Italy and Hungary and look for hard-right solutions to its problems. Nevertheless, none of them will help you.
In light of these unpredictable political shifts and the recent overreach of European political elites in bypassing legal principles and curbing individual freedoms, it's time to take matters into your own hands. There is no good reason to expect things to work out somehow the way you want them to in Europe.
Whatever happens in Europe, you are responsible for preparing your exit plan - your Plan-B- for you and your family. A second passport isn't just for travel; it's a vital asset that brings peace of mind, economic opportunities, and individual freedom. It's a smart way to ensure that, regardless of political changes, you and your family have the choice to live and work in a place that suits your values.
Getting citizenship in another country gives you the benefits and protections that come with it, providing you with options and flexibility when needed. A second passport allows you to operate in a more favourable tax system while politicians continue to chase their failures with even higher taxes on the labour of productive people.
Many countries that offer citizenship by investment or alternative paths to second citizenship have favourable tax regimes, including low or no tax on foreign income, capital gains, wealth, and inheritance. A second passport can provide a more efficient and less restrictive tax environment for those burdened by high taxes and complex laws in their home countries, resulting in greater financial independence and wealth.
A second passport can greatly enhance your individual freedom. In countries where political developments result in increased government control and restrictions on individual freedom, second citizenship provides a lifeline. It allows you to travel more freely, access a wider choice of international services, and live in jurisdictions that respect and safeguard your rights. This independence extends to personal protection, providing a haven during political turbulence or instability.
I moved from Canada with my family for similar reasons and to seek a better future. I have lived in nearly a dozen countries around the world, and this experience has given me more freedom and many economic advantages
In these times of uncertainty, relying merely on the expectation that political and economic situations would improve is a risky approach. A second passport allows you to take charge of your future by giving a proactive solution to risk reduction and ensuring you have the freedom and flexibility to respond to changing circumstances. It is a strategic investment in your personal and financial security, providing peace of mind and comfort that you will have options regardless of how the political and economic situation changes.
From my experience, I know the possibilities a second passport can offer you and your family. Many years ago, I moved my family out of Canada and lived in many different countries worldwide. This process allowed me to work and live in different countries and provided various economic advantages. I have been able to access new business opportunities, take advantage of tax benefits and increase my financial security.
You do not have to be subject to political pressures, complex regulations, high tax rates, or political conflicts in the country you live in. If you want to control your future and eliminate worries, prepare your Plan-B without further due.
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Written by Mikkel Thorup
Mikkel Thorup is the world’s most sought-after expat consultant. He focuses on helping high-net-worth private clients to legally mitigate tax liabilities, obtain a second residency and citizenship, and assemble a portfolio of foreign investments including international real estate, timber plantations, agricultural land and other hard-money tangible assets. Mikkel is the Founder and CEO at Expat Money®, a private consulting firm started in 2017. He hosts the popular weekly podcast, the Expat Money Show, and wrote the definitive #1-Best Selling book Expat Secrets - How To Pay Zero Taxes, Live Overseas And Make Giant Piles Of Money, and his second book: Expats Guide On Moving To Mexico.
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