A few years ago, I explained why I packed up my family and left the UAE after eight incredible years. I got a lot of messages about it. People couldn't understand why anyone would walk away from tax-free income, world-class infrastructure, and a life that, from the outside, looked like pure luxury. I tried to explain it then. I laid out my reasoning clearly and honestly. Sadly, everything I warned about, and even more, has come true.
As I write this updated version in March 2026, the UAE is under active missile and drone attack. Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The Burj Al Arab has been hit. Dubai International Airport, one of the busiest airports in the world and a regional hub, had its fuel tank struck by a drone and was forced to shut down temporarily. Expats are paying up to $250,000 USD for private jets just to flee the country and are selling their gold bullion at huge discounts. The dazzling, opulent, and seemingly invincible cities where I once built my life now awaken to the sound of air raid sirens.
I don't say any of this with satisfaction. I say it because I genuinely care about the people still there, and because if this changes even one family's thinking about where to plant their roots, then it's worth writing.
You have probably heard me mention before that I lived in the Middle East for eight years, specifically in Abu Dhabi, UAE. In fact, I loved it. My wife and I had built a beautiful life together in that country. There was amazing food, we had a wonderful group of friends, and our first child was born there.
Before I get into the personal side of things, let me situate you geographically. Abu Dhabi is the capital of the UAE, southwest of the more internationally recognized Dubai and the cultural hub of Sharjah. It borders the Persian Gulf and has Bronze Age historical sites in its oasis city of Al Ain. The country is majority Muslim, and that lifestyle shapes the culture in ways that are genuinely beautiful to experience as a guest. The UAE itself is a treasure chest of experiences, thrilling amusement parks, desert safaris, indoor ski resorts, incredible dining, and cultural festivals. For years, it has been one of the most exciting places in the world to live.
When we arrived in 2011, the oil price was around $98 USD a barrel. The UAE’s economy was booming. The country was growing rapidly, and expats were literally celebrated. There were parades in the streets welcoming us. Everything about life there was exceptional for several years. The income was good, the lifestyle was extraordinary, and the future felt wide open.
By 2015, oil had crashed all the way down to $34 USD a barrel, and you could feel the shift immediately. The country still needed expats, but "expensive" ones, Canadians like me, Americans, Germans, and British, were suddenly seen as the problem. Our salaries were viewed as an outrageous luxury that companies could no longer justify.
My friends started being systematically replaced with workers from Eastern Europe, the Philippines, Indonesia, and other countries where labour came cheaply. It became common practice to hire two or three people for one position and still spend less than it would cost to hire one Western expat.
Here is the fundamental problem I identified back then, and it is the same one playing out in the headlines right now. Economies like the UAE are built on oil revenues, and when the price drops sharply, or oil routes are not safe to move it through (as we have been experiencing for a few weeks), the whole system trembles. There was even such arrogance about this reality that some companies were actively trading futures, betting that oil would stay high forever. When it didn't, businesses collapsed, and thousands of people lost their jobs almost overnight.
The feeling in the country changed completely. The warmth I had experienced in those early years was replaced by something harder and more transactional. It was a dark couple of years.
I was fortunate enough to be trading in the options markets and earning a tax-free income that wasn't tied to a single employer. I was also doing the podcast and building my consulting business. Thus, I survived that period. However, I watched my friends, good, talented, hard-working people, have their entire expat journeys cut short by something completely outside their control. That was a lesson I will never forget.
By the time I left in 2019, oil had climbed back above $60 USD a barrel, and the country had stabilized somewhat. However, I had already made up my mind.
I left the UAE due to its heavy reliance on oil and its location in a geopolitically tense region
I left the UAE because the country was dangerously dependent on a single thing: oil. The biggest downside of the oil was that it had nothing to do with the talent, the ambition, or the hard work of anyone living there. I had seen what happened when that number moved the wrong way, and I didn't want my family's future subject to that kind of fragility.
However, there was something else that had been bothering me in those final years; I mentioned it at the time, but tried not to exaggerate. There was a growing conflict in the region between Iran, Israel, and some other Middle Eastern countries. The U.S. Sixth Fleet had been positioning itself in the Persian Gulf, and there was serious talk about the UAE becoming a staging ground for a potential military confrontation. I even had a conversation on a first-class flight from the States to Abu Dhabi with a U.S. Senator about the economic ramifications of using financial markets and currency as weapons in that conflict. At the time, some people thought I was being overly cautious, but I was not.
The UAE is now caught in conflict, exposing the risks of its heavy dependence on oil
The U.S. and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran retaliated immediately. As I had feared for years, the UAE has found itself directly in the middle of the fire.
Since that first night, Iran has launched over 300 ballistic missiles, more than 1,600 drones, and cruise missiles at UAE territory. The iconic skylines of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, which I have walked thousands of times, were illuminated by missile strikes, followed by a downpour of debris on residential areas.
The Burj Al Arab, a symbol of everything the UAE has built and projected to the world, took a hit. The Fairmont on the Palm caught fire. Jebel Ali Port, one of the busiest in the world, was targeted. Debris from missiles fell on Palm Jumeirah. Dubai International Airport was struck by a drone and had to briefly suspend operations, stranding hundreds of thousands of travellers. At one point, hundreds of flights were cancelled out of Dubai alone in a single day.
People who built their lives there, just as I once had, are now fleeing. Private jet prices reportedly hit $250,000 USD for a single flight out. Expats left behind their pets, their belongings, and in some cases, years of their lives. It is hard to watch.
Sadly, I anticipated this would happen. Not specific dates or specific missiles, but structural vulnerability. A country built on a single economic lever, situated alongside one of the most unstable geopolitical fault lines on the planet, with a foreign workforce lacking political say and with no security when things go wrong, cannot provide a solid foundation for a family's future. It never was.
Tax-free income isn’t enough because it can’t protect you from economic instability, currency risk, and forces beyond your control
I want to speak directly to the expats reading this who are weighing up a move to the Gulf, or who are currently there and wondering whether to stay.
I understand the appeal. I lived it. The salary is excellent, the taxes are zero, the infrastructure is world-class, and the lifestyle can be genuinely spectacular. I am not dismissing any of that.
But here is what I want you to think carefully about. Tax-free income means nothing if:
The oil price collapses, and your employer replaces you with two cheaper workers from elsewhere.
A conflict you have no control over and no vote in suddenly makes your home a military target.
You wake up one morning to missile alerts on your phone and the realization that there is no Plan-B.
Furthermore, the UAE and the Gulf region have no food or water independence. Their economies remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. The geopolitical position of the countries in this region, caught between the upheavals in the Middle East, creates a risk profile that no amount of salary bonuses can adequately compensate for.
The analysts are already calling what's happening a potential economic catastrophe for the Gulf states. They have even been suggesting the end of the UAE “miracle.” It is not just because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the UAE is not prepared for what has already come. The real reason behind this catastrophe is that the UAE will never be ready for such threats, and now, everybody can see it.
The effects of the Iran War will fade over time as the world finds alternative solutions to the Hormuz Strait issue and recovers from the economic downturn. However, this is not a temporary disruption for the UAE and the other countries in the Middle East. This is the structural risk I identified years ago, which has become visible to everyone at once.
Panama City is a modern, outward-facing capital without the chaos of a megacity
When I left, I had a clear set of criteria in my mind. I wanted to stay in a tax-free or low-tax environment, but I needed it to be backed by something more sustainable than oil prices. I wanted food independence and water independence. I wanted a country that was growing, stable, genuinely welcoming to expats, and not dependent on a single source of economic growth. I needed a place with a straightforward residency process, and ideally an English-speaking country, or somewhere with a language that wasn't too difficult to learn, like Spanish.
After much deliberation, my wife and I chose Panama. Almost seven years in, I have not regretted that decision once. Panama has an active, diverse, and genuinely international expat community. We go out to incredible restaurants several times a week. There are opportunities everywhere, real ones, not just the kind that exist because oil is temporarily expensive. We have stunning nature and beautiful beaches, a short drive from our door. It is, frankly, one of the most beautiful places I have ever lived.
However, beyond the lifestyle, Panama has real structural strengths. The Panama Canal’s consistent and globally vital economic activity has nothing to do with a single commodity price. Panama is a food and water-independent, politically stable country. The country has a well-established and welcoming residency framework, including the Panama Qualified Investors Visa, which is one of the more straightforward paths to legal residency that I have encountered anywhere in the world.
Panama City offers all the cosmopolitan sophistication you could want, great restaurants, a vibrant professional community, and modern infrastructure. Additionally, beyond the city, you have beachfront living, mountain towns, and island life. The options are real, not just recreational.
Panama offered what tax-free alone couldn’t: stability, real economic foundations, and a secure environment for long-term living
I am not writing this to say "I told you so." I am writing it because I have spent years talking to expats who built their entire financial and personal lives around one country, one employer, one currency, and one geopolitical bet, and then watched it unravel through no fault of their own.
The world is large. There are incredible places to live that offer low taxes, strong communities, genuine opportunities, political stability, and beautiful environments. Places where your Plan-B doesn't depend on a barrel of oil staying above a certain price, and where your family won't wake up to missile alerts on a Saturday morning.
The UAE gave me some of the best years of my life. I mean that genuinely. But the decision to leave when I did, and to build a life somewhere with more structural resilience, is one I am more certain of today than I have ever been.
If you are thinking about where in the world to put down roots, I genuinely encourage you to think beyond the headline salary and the tax-free sticker. Think about independence. Think about stability. Think about what the place looks like when things go sideways, because eventually, somewhere, somehow, things always do.
If you want a place to start, I have put together a free special report called Plan-B Residencies and Instant Citizenships that lays out the practical information you need to find a new home with real long-term upside. Download it before the window closes.