The Middle East has long been associated with political instability and conflict, but few expected the 50-year Assad regime in Syria to fall in just 12 days. The opposition group Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control of Damascus last Sunday, forcing ousted leader Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia.
Syria has faced a fragmented administration since the civil war began in 2011 during the Arab Spring. Assad managed to hold power in and around Damascus with military backing from Russia and Iran.
However, the tide began to turn when Israel neutralized Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and pressured Iran to act. Russia, strained by economic and military challenges from the Ukraine War, ultimately withdrew its support for Assad. With no backing left, Syrian soldiers abandoned their posts, shedding their uniforms and fleeing.
This sudden and unexpected turn of events raises important geopolitical questions. How Turkey and Russia will navigate their relationship in the newly formed balance of power and how this shift will influence Turkey's role within BRICS remains to be seen.
In this article, I will briefly evaluate how the changing balances will affect global politics through Russia and Turkey. However, first, let's examine who is who in Syria and the nature of the conflict that regional and global powers are in.
Syria’s shifting power dynamics are reshaping the Middle East, with Iran on the defensive, Turkey advancing, and the US-backed Kurds solidifying their position
It is still too early to predict how the shifting dynamics in Syria will reshape the Middle East. One thing is clear: Iran has been on the defensive for a long time. Previously, Iran pursued its anti-Israel agenda through Syria and Lebanon, but now its primary focus appears to be stabilizing its own regime.
Russia is also likely to adopt a new strategic position. Syria had been a key base for Russia's Mediterranean operations, but its bases there now seem largely non-functional. The evacuation of Russian troops caught in the conflict is ongoing, with Turkey facilitating their withdrawal.
Since the start of Syria’s civil war, Turkey has supported the opposition groups known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with military and financial aid. However, the SDF failed to overthrow Assad. Turkey has also backed Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, a city near Turkey’s southern border. HTS appears to have aligned with the Western bloc—especially the US and Israel—to overthrow Assad, gaining a share in the current victory. As a result, Turkey, along with Israel and the US, stands among the beneficiaries of Assad’s downfall.
The Kurdish opposition group Democratic Union Party (PYD) has also emerged as a significant player. Backed by the US with military and financial support to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the PYD currently controls about 35% of Syria, including nearly all of its oil resources. Following the fall of Damascus, the US reaffirmed its support for the PYD by launching heavy airstrikes on remaining ISIS strongholds. The Kurds are seeking to solidify their political position in the new Syria.
However, Turkey is deeply concerned about the PYD's presence in northern Syria, which borders southern Turkey. Turkey views the PYD as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Worker's Party), a Kurdish separatist group engaged in terrorist activities in Turkey. This has created a significant conflict of interest between Turkey and the US. Whether they can reach an agreement on the PYD remains uncertain.
For Turkey, the most pressing issue is the potential return of approximately 6 million Syrian refugees currently residing within its borders. The hope is that the new Syrian administration will enable their repatriation. Overall, the various actors in the region, caught between conflicting interests and uneasy alliances, are navigating a highly uncertain future.
Turkey’s shifting alliances with NATO and Russia over Syria highlight tensions, from refugee crises to military strategies and geopolitical reshaping
Turkey and Russia have long been at odds over their Syria policies. While Turkey sought to overthrow the Assad regime, Russian air forces intervened, playing a crucial role in maintaining Assad’s grip on power. Tensions between Turkey and Russia had risen so high that Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in 2015 because it had violated its border. The incident, which caused serious political tension between the two countries, resulted in Turkey officially apologizing to Russia, which resulted in normalized relations between the two countries. Later, when Turkey attempted to curb the advance of US-backed PYD forces, it often encountered significant resistance from Russia, leading to major setbacks in Turkey’s Syria strategy.
As a result of these failures, Turkey faced the burden of hosting millions of Syrian refugees. The refugee crisis, sparked by the Syrian war, also had a profound impact on European politics.
Turkey’s Syria policy further strained its relationship with the US. The US had called on Turkey to actively fight against ISIS, but the country declined to join the effort. In response, the US organized and strengthened Kurdish forces, turning them into a major military presence along Turkey’s southern border. Faced with ongoing tensions with both the EU and the US, Turkey pivoted to strengthen its ties with Russia through new initiatives.
Russia leveraged this opportunity to deepen divides within the Western bloc by offering Turkey financial and political support. Notably, Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia and Russia’s construction of a nuclear power plant in Turkey caused significant backlash in the West. Turkey’s exclusion from the 5th Generation F-35 fighter jet program by the US was a particularly sharp blow to its national defence capabilities.
The Ukraine War further solidified Turkey-Russia relations. Turkey’s decision to remain neutral in the conflict was considered a liability for NATO. Allegations of Turkish support for Russia, despite international sanctions, further strained Turkey’s already tense relationship with the US.
Thus, before the fall of the Assad Regime, Russia-Turkey relations continued to grow closer despite some crucial issues. Turkey was expected to become a member of BRICS at the BRICS summit held in Russia in October 2024, although the country only gained partner status. The key question now is how Turkey-Russia relations will evolve and how this new situation could affect the geopolitical position of BRICS.
Turkey’s evolving ties with Russia shape a delicate balance in Syria and beyond, positioning Turkey as a key mediator in post-Ukraine War geopolitics
Although Turkey may be one of the winners in Syria’s changing landscape, this is not central to ongoing developments. For Turkey to improve relations with the US, the PYD would need to disarm. However, the US withdrawing support from the PYD is currently not an option. This leaves a well-armed group in Syria that Turkey considers a terrorist organization.
With Russia and Iran pulling back from Syria, Turkey and Israel are now the only two countries capable of significant military influence in the region. A stable and lasting regime in Syria seems unlikely without factoring in Turkey’s role. In this sense, rather than anticipating a breakdown in Turkey-Russia relations, it’s more accurate to suggest that Turkey has gained a strategic edge over Russia. While Turkey still relies on Russia’s support in its dealings with the US, Russia needs Turkey for its influence in the Middle East and to disrupt the balance within the Western bloc.
If a peace agreement in the Ukraine War were to materialize, it could further strengthen Turkey-Russia BRICS ties. Under Trump's presidency, an agreement between Ukraine and Russia might not be far off.
During this turbulent period, Turkey is expected to continue its balancing act—cooperating with Russia while working to strengthen its position against the US and the EU. At the same time, Russia may look to expand its economic and political influence, especially after the Ukraine War. If economic sanctions on Russia are lifted, a stronger and more comfortable partnership between Russia and Turkey could emerge. Turkey might even serve as a mediator between Russia and the EU.
Turkey’s importance and influence within BRICS will likely grow if these predictions hold. The ongoing conflicts in Syria highlight that Turkey cannot rely solely on its US ties for national defence. Turkey is poised to become a key mediator between Russia and the Western bloc in the new balance that will take shape after the Ukraine War.
Innocent children bearing the devastating consequences of wars they never chose
Most of you may find the conflicts and ongoing turmoil in the Middle East strange events in distant lands. However, the Middle East is one of the most important regions that determine global geopolitics, and anything significant impacts the world. The migration wave in Syria alone was enough to shake the political status quo in the EU.
Contrary to the image they create, political systems are extremely fragile, and politicians, despite their grand rhetoric, make short-sighted decisions. Politicians will easily create crises to save their political careers and may not hesitate to make their people pay for risks they will not bear.
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